Midterm elections polls suggest Democrats have a clear advantage with four weeks to go. Forecasts indicate they are favored to win a narrow House majority, with projections of a net gain of five to 15 seats that would place them around 220 to 230 seats in January, according to nonpartisan handicappers. The Senate map has also shifted, with six seats moving toward Democrats since June as President Trump’s approval rating remains low.
Today’s top stories
In four weeks, Election Day arrives, and a cluster of new midterm elections polls points to momentum for Democrats. They need 218 seats to control the House, and updated ratings put a slim majority within reach. The Senate, once seen as a long shot, is now competitive as multiple races tilt in Democrats’ direction.
- 🎧 Analysts caution that polls are only one piece of the picture. History, the national mood, political structures and money all matter. Turnout remains decisive, but the trendline appears to be moving toward Democrats, particularly in the Senate. Gains in the House are less certain, given party headwinds and that most targeted districts are in areas Trump won in 2024.
- ➡️ If you have not registered to vote yet, it may not be too late. Check your state’s deadlines and requirements.
- ➡️ Find the latest election coverage from national and local outlets on your preferred news app.
A new era in Hollywood is set to begin today as David Ellison’s long-anticipated $111 billion tie-up combining Paramount-Skydance with Warner Bros. Discovery is expected to close. The deal, which unites Paramount Pictures and Warner Bros. Pictures, cleared legal and regulatory hurdles in the U.S. and Europe despite months of public pushback.
- 🎧 Ellison has defended the merger amid concerns about concentrated media power. As part of a settlement to advance the deal, he agreed to produce 30 films a year with the combined studios, though critics remain wary. Questions also linger about CNN’s future, given Ellison’s ties to Trump. He has pledged an independent oversight board to shield CNN from political pressure. Skeptics warn streaming prices could rise and choices could narrow.
A reporter’s account from Tennessee’s failed execution details what media witnesses observed as the state attempted to carry out the first death sentence against a woman there in nearly two centuries. Catherine Sweeney of WPLN was among seven media witnesses to the attempted lethal injection of Christa Pike. Pike’s lawyers had urged the state’s high court to allow hanging instead, citing a platelet disorder and small veins that, they warned, could make an injection painful and ineffective. Sweeney recounted what she saw and heard throughout the day.
Russian officials urge calm after a 28-year-old female lab worker at an anti-plague research institute in Irkutsk fell ill last Tuesday and died two days later. Authorities are investigating the cause of death and pushing back on speculation of a plague outbreak. Here is what is known so far, and what remains unclear.
On the road to the midterms elections
Four weeks from now, voters will decide control of Congress. Ahead of Election Day, Morning Edition is traveling to six battleground states to hear what is shaping voter decisions.
Steve Inskeep is reporting from North Carolina and Georgia. Michel Martin will cover Ohio and Michigan. Leila Fadel reports from Maine. A Martínez is headed to Texas.
Across partisan lines, the cost of living dominates conversations about the economy and the future. Voters are also talking about immigration, the rapid expansion of data centers and the voting process itself, including new restrictions and how ballots will be cast, secured and counted.
Over the next month, the team will ask similar questions in different communities: What matters now, what has changed and where is the country headed?
What the hosts are watching
Steve Inskeep: He is listening for people who feel the election is personal, saying they believe they were directly affected by the past two years of the Trump administration’s moves on immigration, government, education, science, research, the military, emergency management, taxes, foreign policy and the broader economy.
Michel Martin: She notes Ohio is central to the administration’s mass deportation efforts and is a key industrial and logistics hub, a place to gauge how economic policies are landing. Trump is not on the ballot, but his policies are. Michigan, once part of Democrats’ “Blue Wall,” has swung in key races, and the Democratic base has clashed with national party leaders. What is driving voters there, and how are they feeling?
Leila Fadel: With the path to a Senate majority running through Maine, she will explore what motivates voters and how much party loyalty still matters. The state has seen the fallout of immigration crackdowns, shares a long border with Canada and feels trade tensions differently. Democrat Troy Jackson is challenging incumbent Susan Collins, who has won five times. What do voters want from their candidate, and does party matter if the message resonates?
A Martínez: He is tracking Texas, where Republicans redrew five congressional districts to favor the GOP. In three of them, the maps increased Latino voters. What is behind the party’s bet on Latino voters, and will it help Republicans keep control of the U.S. Senate?
Follow along: Maine coverage airs today. Texas is next on Oct. 13, then North Carolina and Georgia, and Ohio and Michigan. Listen on Morning Edition, online, in the app and in the newsletter.
Picture show
A new series visits breakfast tables worldwide. In Munich, the Bavarian morning spread features boiled veal sausage, sweet mustard and a giant pretzel, often with beer. Researcher Demetrios Kyriakides says the ambiance of Gemütlichkeit, or conviviality, is as essential as the menu, often accompanied by brass oom-pah music. Tradition holds that the feast wraps before noon when church bells ring.
3 things to know before you go
- Under artistic director Robert Garland, Dance Theatre of Harlem is launching a new chapter by reviving its landmark 1982 production of Firebird for an international tour.
- Biologists at the University of Massachusetts Amherst have identified what may be the world’s loudest birds, all found in Brazil. (via WBUR)
- Scientist Olivia Sanderfoot is working to build a new field, “smoke ecology,” focused on how wildfire smoke affects wildlife and how to reduce the harm.
This roundup was edited for clarity and brevity.
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