Black Sea attacks are increasingly disrupting grain flows from Ukraine and Russia, leaving millions of tons of crops stranded and raising fresh concerns for global food security as the harvest shifts from wheat and barley to corn, soybeans and sunflowers.
In southern Ukraine’s Odesa region, farmer Oleksandr Chumak reported strong yields this season, yet said roughly 80% of his grain cannot be sold at a profit. Storage sites across both countries are filling up, he said, as insurers pull back from covering commercial ships amid intensified Russian strikes on Black Sea targets over summer and into fall, and Kyiv’s retaliatory attacks hamper Russian exports as well.
With deadly incidents continuing into October, prospects for a cease-fire remain dim even as Turkey tries to broker an agreement to safeguard food supplies to Europe, the Middle East, Asia and Africa. Ukrainian farmers warn that a collapse in domestic prices is undermining plans to plant for the 2027 crop. Andrii Dykun, who chairs the Ukrainian Agri Council, said only rapeseed and sunflower seed are selling, but volumes are insufficient. He questioned why farmers should sow if they have no profits and full silos.
Ukraine’s largest lender, state-owned PrivatBank, said it disbursed 1.53 billion hryvnia (about $34.2 million) in working capital financing to agribusinesses from June through August, more than double the same period last year. Yevhen Zaihraiev, the bank’s chief corporate and SME business officer, said funds are tied up in inventories while farms still need to cover ongoing costs and secure financing for autumn and spring sowing. Some producers are selling early at weaker prices to maintain liquidity, while those with storage are holding out for better markets, he said.
Ukraine’s grains and oilseeds output is forecast to rise to 85 million tonnes from 80 million tonnes this year, but carry-over stocks are straining storage and logistics, including plastic silobags and metal elevators that remain vulnerable to strikes. Zaihraiev said farmers are adjusting 2027 planting plans toward oilseeds and niche crops that are less exposed to logistics costs.
Chumak plans to scale back planting next year, skipping corn and barley in favor of crops that need less fertilizer, which is also tight amid broader geopolitical pressures. He described working under constant threat as rockets and drones strike near fields and homes.
Black Sea attacks could ‘flip the market fast’
Ukraine’s agricultural sector has weathered farm seizures, mines and labor shortages since Russia’s full-scale invasion in early 2022. Efforts to keep exports moving through the region included the now-collapsed Black Sea grain initiative and the European Union’s Solidarity Lanes. Conditions are now the most severe since the war began for both domestic operations and global supply chains.
Before the conflict, Ukraine and Russia together supplied more than half of the world’s sunflower oil, nearly one-fifth of its barley and 14% of its wheat, according to the United Nations. Ukraine is also among the largest corn producers, with China and the European Union key buyers. Roughly 90% of Ukraine’s main agricultural exports normally move via the Black Sea, but in August this year, grain and legume shipments fell to 981,000 tonnes, down about 58% year over year.
The squeeze comes as Europe faces a weak corn harvest and needs more imports, while the United States also contends with a softer corn crop. Better wheat and barley output in Canada, Australia and Argentina, along with solid harvests in parts of the Middle East and North Africa, are helping cushion the blow for now.
Benoit Fayaud, senior grains and oilseeds analyst at Expana, said a reopening of Black Sea ports would release a wave of low-priced supply that could “flip the market fast” with little warning. He said a deal that restores Ukrainian and Russian exports could push down prices at other origins by several dozen dollars, given the size of the stocks.
Rock-bottom prices inside Ukraine and Russia have intensified the search for alternative routes by rail, road and river, Fayaud noted, but these options are difficult and slow for both countries. Eastern European neighbors including Poland and Romania have resisted expanded transit due to fears of gluts hurting local farmers. Low water levels on the Danube and damage to a key bridge out of Ukraine add to the bottlenecks.
Routes through the Baltic states and via Georgia into the Middle East and Central Asia exist, but they can only handle a fraction of normal volumes. Trade tensions over shifting flows echo broader strains seen as G20 trade talks stall over excess capacity in other sectors.
Dykun said there is no substitute for Black Sea ports on price. Even farmers near Ukraine’s western border get better returns shipping through those ports than overland to the European Union, he said. Without Black Sea access, he added, the economics do not work.
