Indiana vs. North Texas kicks off Saturday as the reigning CFP champion Hoosiers launch their title defense against the Mean Green in Bloomington. No. 5 Indiana went 16-0 last season and is 27-2 under Curt Cignetti entering his third year. North Texas is coming off a milestone 12-2 campaign that set a program record for wins, and the Mean Green now turn to new head coach Neal Brown after Eric Morris departed for Oklahoma State.
Kickoff is set for noon ET at Memorial Stadium. The latest Indiana vs. North Texas line lists the Hoosiers as 40.5-point favorites, with a total of 56.5. A nationally recognized projection model that simulates every FBS game 10,000 times has issued its picks for this matchup after refining inputs for the transfer portal and other offseason changes.
The projection system has produced a 32-19 run on top-rated college football money-line selections since 2024, and it has been updated for the 2026 season. Its simulations are designed to identify edges across sides, totals and money lines.
Indiana vs. North Texas predictions
After 10,000 simulations of Indiana vs. North Texas, the model recommends the Over on 56.5 points. Indiana finished last season as the nation’s top team, while North Texas led the FBS in points per game, yards per game and offensive touchdowns.
The Over hit in 10 of 14 Mean Green contests last season, and Indiana went 10-6 to the Over. Under Cignetti since 2024, Indiana games have gone Over at a 62.1% clip, the third-highest rate among Power 4 programs over that span.
The Hoosiers have shown they can score regardless of who is under center, and the previous meeting between these programs finished with 73 total points. The model projects 60 combined points, with the Over cashing in 58% of its runs.
How to make Indiana vs. North Texas picks
The simulation also identifies one side of the spread hitting nearly 70% of the time. Bettors can review the model’s full spread and money-line analysis before placing wagers.
