President Trump’s tariff standoff with Canada has Michigan swing voters worried that the Canada trade war will drive up prices and strain the state’s border economy ahead of the midterms.
NPR observed two online focus groups Wednesday with 13 Michigan voters who supported Joe Biden in 2020 and then Trump in 2024. Eleven said the trade fight with Canada, which neighbors Michigan, would be bad for the state. None believed there was an upside to the current tensions.
Most participants cited fears that higher tariffs would make an affordability crunch worse, a central issue in this year’s elections. Nine said they were concerned Trump’s tariffs would raise their own costs for certain goods.
“Prices are going to go up,” said P.J., a 45-year-old self-identified Democrat who participated on the condition that only first names be used. “The more we put tariffs on stuff, the more they put tariffs on stuff. Prices are just ultimately going to go up for all of us.”
These focus groups with swing voters in battleground states are conducted by messaging firm Engagious and recruiting firm Nelson Recruiting, with NPR partnering monthly as part of the Swing Voter Project. While focus groups are not scientific like polls, they offer a snapshot of what a small but influential segment of voters is thinking.
Michigan voters this year will also decide a closely watched U.S. Senate race that could determine whether Democrats regain control of the chamber.
Rich Thau, president of Engagious and the moderator of the sessions, said Michigan’s proximity to Canada makes the financial risks of tariffs feel immediate. “It’s real for them,” he said. “It’s proximate and they’re concerned that this is going to be damaging to them personally and to the state overall.”
Several participants said they regularly see cross-border commerce. Tanya, a 61-year-old independent, noted heavy truck traffic and worried the new Gordie Howe International Bridge and other crossings could see reduced activity.
“It’s going to decrease the border crossings because we have two bridges now,” she said. “It’s going to affect the amount of traffic and the business that those bridges are going to see in the future.”
High prices aren’t coming down
Some voters said they expect everyday items to get more expensive. Barbara, a 77-year-old independent, said even routine purchases could jump in price.
“I just went into the store and I looked at my shampoo and I said, ‘OK, this is going to go up 50%,’” she said, noting it is made in Canada.
Sylvia, a 62-year-old Democrat, said she might delay buying Canadian goods. “I like to buy certain alcohol and other types of products [from Canada],” she said. “If it’s going to go up, it’s going to cost me more. So I probably wouldn’t be able to pick it up right away.”
Month after month, participants in these focus groups have vented about high prices. In Michigan, eight of the 13 said they feel more economically anxious now than before Trump returned to office.
“They complained bitterly about the high prices of an endless number of goods, groceries, gasoline,” Thau said. “So the tariffs just add more fuel to the fire.”
Samantha, a 31-year-old independent, said she is frustrated because she backed Trump expecting lower costs. “I feel like my only reason for voting for him was in the hopes of fixing the economy,” she said.
“And right now from where I am, I would consider myself middle class, things are more expensive such as food, gas.”
Many also viewed Trump’s decision to rename Lake Ontario as Lake America, a move tied to Canada’s retaliatory tariffs, as driven by ego. “It is a little bit of his ego,” Sylvia said, adding that she wants the administration to prioritize lowering inflation.
David, a 67-year-old independent who identifies with the MAGA movement, said the renaming was meant to provoke Canada. “He’s just trying to get a rise out of the opposition in Canada and get a reaction,” he said.
Canada trade war worries loom over Michigan’s border economy
For Michigan, where cross-border trade supports jobs and supply chains from lumber to consumer goods, participants said the prospect of escalating tariffs feels close to home. Their comments underscore how the Canada trade war is shaping voter sentiment in a battleground state that will play an outsized role in November.
Month after month, participants in these focus groups have vented about high prices. In Michigan, eight of the 13 said they feel more economically anxious now than before Trump returned to office.
Some saw the Canada dispute and broader economic unease as part of a wider backlash brewing ahead of the midterms, echoing concerns about how technology, infrastructure, and cost-of-living issues are reshaping local politics that have surfaced in other states in recent months, including those highlighted in AI data centers and Flock cameras fuel midterm backlash.
The Canadian border also looms large in their concerns. Several participants mentioned products and trade routes that depend on stable relations with Canada, including automotive supply chains and consumer goods that move through key crossings.
For more information on how U.S.-Canada trade policy affects border states like Michigan, readers can consult background resources from the Office of the United States Trade Representative, which oversees the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement and related negotiations.
