As Election Day approaches, five swing voters takeaways offer a snapshot of how a small but decisive bloc is viewing the race. Over the past year, monthly online focus groups followed voters in battleground states who supported Joe Biden in 2020, then backed Donald Trump in 2024. The sessions, run by a messaging firm with a market research recruiter and partnered with public media, explored their views on the candidates, the economy and emerging technology.
Five swing voters takeaways
- Biden-to-Trump voters soured quickly on the president. Participants who moved from Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024 reported losing confidence in Biden’s leadership over time. Their shift was not gradual, they said it accelerated as frustrations mounted.
- Trump’s decisions are closely tied to perceptions of the economy. Many drew a straight line from Trump-era policies to how they feel about jobs, prices and growth. Their economic outlook often hinged on how they interpreted decisions made while he was in office.
- Democrats do not get a pass. Even as some praised specific policies, these voters expressed low enthusiasm for the Democratic Party overall. Discontent extended beyond the presidential contest to a broader skepticism of party leadership.
- Economic populism has cross-ideological appeal. Views on the left and right appeared to converge around themes like reining in corporate power, prioritizing working-class concerns and pushing for fairer economic rules.
- Worries about artificial intelligence and data centers are widespread. Participants voiced broad concern about AI’s impact on jobs, privacy and community resources, including the proliferation of large data facilities.
The focus groups, part of an ongoing Swing Voter Project, met monthly throughout 2026. Organizers say the conversations aimed to understand how these voters weigh policy impacts and leadership style as they consider their next choices.
An hour-long special discussion delves deeper into these findings and the voices behind them.
Production credits were noted by the organizers of the special program.
