AUSTIN, Texas — The Texas Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico emerged Tuesday as a marquee midterm showdown, with Democrats aiming to end a 30-year statewide drought and Republicans fighting to protect a traditional stronghold and a narrowing Senate majority.
The campaign has tested voters’ tolerance for long-running controversies surrounding Paxton, the state’s Republican attorney general, while probing whether Talarico’s religion-tinged populism can open a path to victory for Democrats in a state that President Donald Trump easily won two years ago.
Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, but an unusual series of developments set up one of the cycle’s most hard-fought and expensive contests, raising Republican concerns that the seat could flip.
Paxton ousted incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in a bruising primary after securing a late endorsement from Trump, despite worries among Senate GOP leaders that Paxton’s legal baggage made him more vulnerable in a general election.
Voter frustration over high costs for gas, groceries and healthcare, along with discontent over the war with Iran, has further weighed on Trump and Republicans this year.
Talarico centered his message on casting Paxton as emblematic of a corrupt political system that empowers billionaires while everyday prices surge. He also sought to appeal to moderate Republicans and independents uneasy with Paxton.
Paxton leaned on base turnout, historically an advantage for Republicans in Texas. He campaigned alongside Trump multiple times, and the former president echoed Paxton’s characterization of Talarico as too progressive for the state, citing past remarks including that God is “nonbinary.”
Texas Senate race highlights money, ethics and ideology
With a national environment favorable to Democrats on issues such as rising living costs and the Iran war, Paxton contended with a series of legal and ethical troubles. He was impeached in 2023 and later acquitted by the GOP-led Senate on corruption accusations, and a separate federal corruption probe ended without charges. Testimony during impeachment included allegations of marital infidelity. His wife has since filed for divorce, citing “biblical grounds.”
Talarico repeatedly pressed those ethical questions to win over Republicans and independents while avoiding broad attacks on the party itself. He framed the contest less as right versus left and more as the ultra-wealthy versus everyone else.
That argument gained traction after Elon Musk, a Texas resident and the world’s richest man, became a major financial force in the race. Musk contributed $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, which then gave the same amount to Texas PAC, the largest backer of Paxton’s campaign. Musk also gave $10 million to the Paxton-aligned Lone Star Liberty PAC.
The influx helped saturate the state with anti-Talarico ads. In response, the Democrat spotlighted Musk’s giving as a prime example of what he calls outsized moneyed influence in politics.
While acknowledging cost-of-living strains, Paxton focused more on portraying Talarico as out of step with Texas. He highlighted culture-war flashpoints, pointing to Talarico previously naming a favorite drag performer in Texas and saying there were six sexes.
Talarico has since tempered his rhetoric on gender issues, calling earlier comments “cringey,” and said he opposes transgender athletes competing in women’s sports if it “endangers safety or fairness.”
On the trail, Talarico often adopted a pastoral tone, presenting himself as an attentive listener to voters’ concerns and pledging to address them if elected.
Culture-war fights helped elevate Paxton as attorney general, including his lead role in a failed lawsuit to overturn the 2020 election after Trump falsely claimed it was stolen.
